1	What’s the latest on Iraq? Updates for the Iraq Solidarity Campaign 5 November 2004
2	Is the US winning in Iraq? SOME INDICATORS: Level of troops back to 140,000, same as just after invasion, originally targetted to be just 105,000 by May 2004 2,700 attacks by resistance on coalition forces for the month of August 2004, highest since invasion Recent infiltration of Green Zone US military strategists and retired generals say war is already ‘lost’ Latest leaked intelligence report pessimistic
3	Is the US winning in Iraq? SOME INDICATORS: Rumsfeld has hinted of possible withdrawal Even Allawi says it’s getting worse Commercial aircraft departures just 45 per day; target was 200-300 by July 04
4	Is the US winning in Iraq OBJECTIVES - minimum ‘collateral damage’ and security for ‘reconstruction’ REALITY - 100,000 civilians killed so far, accdg to very credible report - 1476 killed in bombings -152 kidnapped, 31 killed
5	Is the US winning in Iraq? OBJECTIVES - support for and legitimacy of occupation among Iraqis REALITY - 81% want coalition forces to leave as opposed to 7% who want them to stay - 55% of Iraqis don’t consider “interim government” as their representative - 45% believe country is heading in wrong direction, as opposed to 41% who don’t - 33% blame US for insecurity, 32% blame ‘terrorists,’ and only 8% blame Baathists
6	Is the US winning in Iraq? OBJECTIVES - international support for occupation REALITY - despite UN resolutions, no additional troops - rebuffs from possible major contributors (India, Pakistan, France, etc.) - out of total $55 billion asked from international community for ‘reconstruction’, only $23B promised
7	Is the US winning in Iraq? - “Coalition of the willing” is unraveling Down from 30 to 21 members Others have reduced contingents Singapore: from 191 to 33 Moldova: 12 Total contribution is just 15% of over-all troop level During invasion, coalition represented 19% of world population. Now, only 14%
8	Is the US winning in Iraq? REMAINING MEMBERS OF COALITION 1. UK - 8,300 2. South Korea - 2,800 3. Italy - 2,700 4. Poland - 2,350 5. Ukraine - 1,450 6. Netherlands - 1,300 7. Australia - 920 8. Romania - 700 9. Japan - 550 10. Bulgaria - 480
9	Is the US winning in Iraq? OBJECTIVES - domestic support REALITY - Bush re-election not necessarily a mandate for war - 51% of Americans say it was not worth going to war
10	Is the US winning? NO. - Politically, it has decisively lost. - Economically, it has been unable to implement sweeping neo-liberal plans. - Militarily, it has an edge but is disadvantaged in a classic guerilla war.
11	Is the US winning? NO. It will almost certainly be defeated. The only questions are - when? - how it will leave? - how many people will die?
12	Does the resistance have a chance? - US objectives have been repeatedly hindered by political and armed resistance. - they’ve forced early elections - they’ve forced suspension of economic plans - they’ve prevented beginning of sweeping efforts to rebuild and remake Iraqi state - they’ve prevented possible invasion of Syria and Iran, and forced the US to lay off North Korea
13	What are the prospects of the resistance? - resistance strength now estimated to be around 40,000 to 50,000 nationwide - most of resistance fighters Iraqis, not “foreign terrorists” -- as admitted by US military itself - ‘Zarqawi’ said to be a minor player, said to be responsible for only 6 out of 3,000 attacks - signs of coordination - still no unified front
14	What do Iraqis think of resistance fighters? (according to CPA poll) - 66%: they believe that coalition is trying to steal Iraq’s oil - 59%: they believe that foreign forces must leave - 53%: they belive that national dignity requires attacks - 9%: they don’t want democracy in Iraq - 9%: they want to return Saddam to power
15	How is the US responding? US will not leave without Access to oil Military bases Pro-business laws
16	How is the US trying to salvage these goals? * leave behind a pro-US government and then withdraw into military bases * do everything within its power to help pro-US candidates in upcoming elections * uncovered: covert CIA plan to aid elections * open assistance: State Dept, NED et al to spend $30 million * attempts to convince Iraqis to form a coalition
17	How is the US trying to salvage these goals? DESTROY THE RESISTANCE: - pacify the cities before the elections - coming up next: a massive bloody attack on Fallujah, Ramadi, et al - ‘largest and riskiest offensive’ since May
18	Challenge for the Philippine Peace Movement Globescan Survey: Survey of 35 countries by Globescan research in July and August 04: only Poland, Nigeria and Phils will vote for Bush. (Bush 57%, Kerry 32%)
19	Challenge for the Peace Movement SWS Survey (August 5-22, 04): - 67% approve pull-out of troops from Iraq, 17% disagree - 51% deny that Philippines should be blamed if more hostages were to be taken - 56% agree with joining coalition in Iraq - 69% said invasion of Iraq was right - in ARMM, 75% disagree with joining coalition and with invasion
20	Challenge for the Peace Movement - 43% believed Bush lied about Saddam threat, 67% in ARMM - 78% say good relations with US very/somewhat important for Philippine economic development - 73% say it is very/somewhat important for protecting Philippines from international terrorism - 65% trust the US – more than any other country, distrust is only 11%
21	Challenge for the Peace Movement - 62% approve of US military assistance to combat Abu Sayyaf, 21% disapprove - in ARMM, only 42% approve and 39% disapprove on taking US help - on US elections, 27% like Bush, 8% would go for Kerry